By: Matthew Winograd
Burkina Faso is a weak state, and it is under threat of becoming weaker. It ranks 21st overall in the Fragile State Index, making it one of the more fragile states in the world. Burkina Faso’s government and image are dominated by one man, Transitional President of Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traoré. Traoré assumed power through a military coup which he led in September of 2022. He has maintained power by eroding the already weak democratic institutions in Burkina Faso, taking actions like suspending elections until July of 2029. The nation rests its hopes on Traoré, a charismatic leader in his mid-30s who champions himself as a Pan-Africanist leader, determined to free his nation from Western influence and neo-colonialism. Some have compared him to famous African heroes such as Thomas Sankara, a fellow Burkinabé who championed similar ideals of African independence and reform. However, despite a seemingly strong leader, the state of Burkina Faso is relatively weak. It struggles to maintain a monopoly on violence and is under constant security threats, both from other states and from within. Additionally, despite his seemingly widespread popularity, especially amongst the Burkinabé youth, it is hard to gauge how popular Traoré truly is due to influences like a strong propaganda campaign and a crackdown on political dissent. Burkina Faso has questionable autonomy, because as Traoré has rallied hard against Western influence, he has formed strong connections with the Russian government, receiving military support and training in exchange for control of gold mines. This raises the question of how much autonomy Burkina Faso has and threatens to weaken its autonomy in the future. Burkina Faso’s government has quite little capacity in the present-day. More than 40% of its citizens live under the poverty line, there are more than 1 million IDPs, which are internally displaced persons, persons who have been forced to move due to conflict, violence, or disaster, but remain in their country. Additionally, Burkina Faso ranks 186th out of 193 in the Human Development Index, which measures general quality of life. Though Traoré is a popular leader, Burkina Faso remains a weak state, with questionable autonomy and low capacity. Though Traoré has not been in power for long and the Burkinabé people are hopeful for change, I believe that foreign influence, internal leadership failures, and constant violence will cause Burkina Faso to remain a weak state.
Currently, Burkina Faso is a weak state, and one of the main reasons for this is its weak security apparatus. According to the Fragile State Index, it has a security apparatus indicator score of 9.5, which is not only the highest it has been for Burkina Faso in the last 20 years, but ranks 6th highest for all states in the Fragile State Index. This means that Burkina Faso faces extreme threats and is a dangerous country. Burkina Faso has been and remains a center for global terrorism. In fact, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Burkina Faso has the highest impact of terrorism of any nation in the world, meaning that it is severely affected by terrorism. It is estimated that Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliated groups control 30% of the country. The main group responsible for the constant threat of terror in Burkina Faso is the Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), a terrorist group formed in 2017 by a merger of four Al-Qaeda affiliated groups. Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) is considered the base of operations of the JNIM and they have significant influence over multiple regions of Burkina Faso, especially in its eastern region and near the borders of Mali and Niger. The group has carried out kidnappings and attacks (typically with IEDs), and have blocked humanitarian aid, imposed forced taxation, and looted crucial establishments, like health centers and places of worship. In response, Burkina Faso has sent state-sponsored militias, notably Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), a group known for committing horrid offenses and war crimes. The VDP is partially made up of volunteers and partially made up of conscripted men, some of whom were forced to fight on the frontlines because they criticized or spoke out against the junta (military group that rules a country after taking power by force). Another defense strategy for Burkina Faso has been to utilize their partnership with Russia and they used the Wagner Group for protection, however, after the group’s rebellion, the Russian military unit deployed to Burkina Faso is now known as the Africa Corps. Both groups have been reported to conduct indiscriminate airstrikes, and perpetrate countless other war crimes. All Burkinabé methods of defense have been largely ineffective. In the first half of 2025, JNIM claimed it had carried out over 280 attacks in Burkina Faso. That total is double the number it was in the same period in 2024. The lack of a strong central military and the reliance on militia groups and foreign intervention to defend Burkina Faso is a commentary on the strength of the state and its ability to withstand the constant security threats they face. Despite the country being controlled by a military captain and a junta, the military defense is a confusing mix of volunteers, political prisoners, and conscripted men, trained by Russian forces. The unsurprising ineffectiveness of these combined forces leaves Burkina Faso at or near the top of the most dangerous countries in the world, and arguably the epicenter of global terrorism today. The security apparatus of Burkina Faso is weak, as it does not have the capacity nor the autonomy to defend itself effectively.
Burkina Faso, despite its struggles to defend itself and its lack of control over its whole land, is a weak state, not a failed state, in large part due to the legitimacy of the state. According to the Fragile State Index, the state legitimacy of Burkina Faso is rated a 7.1, which is not terrible. Ibrahim Traoré is a relatively new leader, having just finished his third full year in power. Despite all of the problems in Burkina Faso, Traoré is quite popular amongst the Burkinabés. Burkina Faso is one of the youngest countries in the world with an average age of just 17.7 years old, and Traoré, who has promised significant change, has a significant appeal for the younger generations. Though he took control of the government through the illegitimate means of a coup, this is not uncommon in Africa, where there have been 220 attempted coups since 1950 (109 successful). Traoré has maintained charismatic legitimacy, winning the admiration of the people whose hopes rest on his shoulders. Traoré’s promises of fighting terrorism, rejecting Western influences, combatting corruption, and holding elections are ideas that Burkinabés have long called for. The ideas and actions of Traoré have drawn comparisons to legendary Burkinabé leader and hero Thomas Sankara, who was incredibly popular during his time in power. Sankara led Burkina Faso for just four years before he was assassinated in a coup by his friend and ally, Blaise Compaoré. The comparisons between Sankara and Traoré are not unfounded, Sankara aggressively fought corruption (a fight that brought about his demise), and rejected Western influence, going so far as to reject loans from the IMF (International Monetary Fund). However, Sankara and Traoré are also similar in more sinister ways. Both men persecuted their political enemies and human rights violations have occurred under both, including but not limited to human torture. Traoré’s legitimacy can also be called into question when considering his stance on elections. Part of Traoré’s appeal to the Burkinabés was his promise of fair and free elections. Now, after just three years in power, Traoré has put a hold on elections until 2029, securing his power. Political violence continues to be the norm in Burkina Faso, both at the hands of Traoré’s government against his political enemies and at the hands of terrorist organizations like the JNIM. Traoré justifies the “forced disappearances” of reporters and critics of his government by branding these dissenters as unpatriotic and threats to national sovereignty. In this way, he silences dissent and pushes forward propaganda, which helps to maintain his generally favorable view in the eyes of the Burkinabé. Ibrahim Traoré has a very high approval rating and is popular with the citizens of Burkina Faso, yet his legitimacy is charismatic and was not attained by legal means. This decreased the state legitimacy, as shown in the FSI graph, yet Traoré maintains charismatic legitimacy as the ruler of Burkina Faso, and there is enough state legitimacy to consider Burkina Faso a weak state rather than a failed state.
In the future, I believe that Burkina Faso will become weaker. At the moment, it relies entirely on its charismatic leader, Ibrahim Traoré, and power is incredibly consolidated in his hands. Traoré has already shown dictator-like tendencies which does not bode well for the future of the state. Although he is popular now, he has shown no progress in stopping the violence and terrorism faced by the Burkinabé, and eventually, he either won’t be able to silence the people, or, more likely, there will be another coup and another leader will take power. Traoré has replaced French and other Western influences with Russian influence, and I think this change will have negative effects that will manifest themselves increasingly as time goes on. Traoré echoes previous leaders like Sankara in his rejection of Western influence yet Traore simply replaces Western influence with other foreign influences, and the result is the same: decreased autonomy. I believe that Burkina Faso will become even more unstable in the future as terrorist groups like the JNIM continue to rampage through the Central Sahel. The security apparatus graph on the Fragile State Index shows a consistent increase in the indicator score, suggesting that Burkina Faso will continue to struggle to be safe and defend itself. The amount of violence, the questionable legitimacy, and the limited autonomy of Burkina Faso will become increasingly evident as time goes on, and Burkina Faso will become weaker.
Overall, Burkina Faso is a weak state, and I believe that in the future, it will only get weaker. Despite having a seemingly strong and popular leader in Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso is one of if not the most dangerous countries in the entire world. Its legitimacy is under threat as Traoré has shown willingness to undermine the already weak pillars of its democracy by delaying elections. I think Traoré’s vision for Burkina Faso, while popular, is unrealistic, and is being implemented poorly. Traoré has recognized control over Burkina Faso and has been able to hold and maintain power, so Burkina Faso is not a failed state, but its limited capacity, weak autonomy, and non-existent monopoly on violence make it a weak state.
Citations & Bibliography:
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