By: Matthew Winograd
On January 6, 2025, when Canadian prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, polls showed the Conservative Party holding a significant advantage, virtually guaranteeing they would win the majority of the Canadian Parliament, and with that the position of Prime Minister. In the nearly four months between that announcement and the election, the polls shifted dramatically until they showed Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney leading in the run up to the election. On April 29, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won 169 seats, defeating the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre who finished with 142 seats. This raises the questions: what caused this dramatic shift, and how will this election impact the United States?
There is no doubt about it, the main factor that affected these election results was Donald Trump. His tariffs and threats towards Canada, including his repeated floating of the idea that Canada can become the 51st state, were at the forefront of voters’ minds when they headed to the polls to vote in this general election. Mark Carney was viewed by voters as being harder on Trump and more independent from him, both in policy and temperament, which significantly benefited many voters’ perception of him. In comparison, Poilievre has been referred to by the media as “Maple MAGA.” His tactics were similar to Trump’s, criticizing the Liberal administration’s handling of the economy, promising to eliminate “wokeism,” and referring to his opponents with derogatory nicknames. As Trump’s rhetoric towards Canada became more and more aggressive, Poilievere’s popularity tanked, with swing voters wary of the leader “south of the border.”
The turnaround in the polls was not solely due to Poilievere’s popularity decreasing. As Trump’s tariffs were put in place, Mark Carney emerged as a candidate uniquely qualified to help Canada through a potential trade war and steer Canada through economic crisis. Despite the fact that Carney had never held elected office before becoming Prime Minister, he is extremely experienced in the world of economics. He was widely praised for helping Canada avoid the worst effects of the 2008 financial crisis as Governor of the Bank of Canada. From 2013-2020, Carney served as Governor of the Bank of England, overseeing the economy through a period of economic turbulence that came with Brexit. With Trump’s tariffs threatening Canada’s economy, supporters rallied behind Carney, pointing to his experience in times of economic crisis as some of his defining strengths as a candidate.
As for the impact of the Liberal victory on the United States, Trump did not appear concerned. He congratulated Carney on his victory via a phone call and agreed to meet in person in the near future. However, despite his congratulations, Trump’s goals appear unaffected, with White House deputy press secretary saying “the election does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state.” The results of this election will likely not have a large impact on Trump’s policies, as he has tended to maintain his positions regardless of leadership changes in other countries. The Trump administration would have preferred Poilievre’s Conservatives to win because though they are less ideologically extreme than Trump, their policies are more aligned with Trump’s than those of the centrist, left-leaning Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney. In short, for Canada, this was an extremely consequential election, but for the United States, the impact is not expected to be very significant.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/28/americas/canada-election-results-carney-poilievre-intl-hnk/index.html
politicsblog.org 
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